These graphs show forecasts of seasonal East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) frequency. The time series view shows both the forecast for the current season as well as forecasts made during past seasons. The Predictor Variable View graphs show the combinations of predictor variables upon which the forecasts are based. The black line divides the scatterplot into the combination of variables that define high and low activity forecasts. Information concerning the identification of individual storms appears in Hirsch et al. (2000). Details on the relationship between storm strength and coastal impacts is given in DeGaetano (2007).

LOW STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECASTED

• Seasons in which HIGH activity was FORECASTED • Seasons in which LOW activity was FORECASTED • Number of storms OBSERVED in the current season. Early in the season (Oct - Dec), this point will likely be near zero. The position of the point will change through the current season as more storms occur. In the time series view, the 75th percentile of seasonal storm frequency. In active seasons the number of storms falls above this value. In the predictor variable view, the line dividing the scatterplot into combinations of variables that define high and LOW activity forecasts. or Seasons that were forecasted incorrectly (red: high activity forecast, low activity occurred; blue: low activity forecast, high activity occurred) Strong East Coast Storm Frequency East Coast Winter Storm Frequency Regional Storm Surge Frequency

Click graph for data table Time Series View Predictor Variable View