These graphs shows forecasts of seasons in which regional surge frequency is low. The time series view shows both the forecast for the current season as well as forecasts made during past seasons. The Predictor Variable View graphs show the combinations of predictor variables upon which the forecasts are based. The black line divides the scatterplot into the combination of variables that define low activity and average-high frequency forecasts. Information concerning the identification of individual storms appears in Hirsch et al. (2000). Details on the relationship between storm strength and coastal impacts is given in DeGaetano (2007).

AVERAGE-HIGH SURGE ACTIVITY IS FORECASTED

• Seasons in which surge event activity was FORECASTED to be AVERAGE OR HIGH • Seasons in which surge event activity was FORECASTED to be LOW • Number of surge events OBSERVED in the current season. Early in the season (Oct - Dec), this point will likely be near zero. The position of the point will change through the current season as more surge events occur. In the time series view, the 25th percentile of seasonal surge event frequency. In low activity seasons the number of storms falls below this value. In the predictor variable view, the line dividing the scatterplot into combinations of variables that define average-high and low surge event frequency forecasts. or Seasons that were forecasted incorrectly (red: average-high, low activity occurred; blue: low activity forecast, average-high occurred) Strong East Coast Storm Frequency All East Coast Storm Frequency Regional Storm Surge Frequency

Click graph for data table Time Series View Predictor Variable View